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December 8, 2009
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is a contributing editor at Scientific American. He focuses on space science and fundamental physics, ranging from particles to planets to parallel universes. He is the author of The Complete Idiot's Guide to String Theory. Musser has won numerous awards in his career, including the 2011 American Institute of Physics's Science Writing Award. Follow on Twitter @gmusser.
is a contributing editor at Scientific American. He focuses on space science and fundamental physics, ranging from particles to planets to parallel universes. He is the author of The Complete Idiot's Guide to String Theory. Musser has won numerous awards in his career, including the 2011 American Institute of Physics's Science Writing Award. Follow on Twitter @gmusser.
Editor’s Note: Scientific American‘s George Musser will be chronicling his experiences installing solar panels in Solar at Home (formerly 60-Second Solar). Read his introduction here and see all posts here.
It’s the eternal question: Buy now or wait? Assuming you want to install solar panels on your roof, should you go for it or hold off for better technology or lower prices? I don’t have a definitive answer, but let me offer a few thoughts that might inform your decision.
Obviously, solar installers want you to jump in forthwith. Even leaving aside their self-interest, they do make some good points. There’s really no need to wait for technology to improve. In terms of how fast they become obsolete, solar arrays are more like cars than computers. Although photovoltaic cells and auxiliary equipment such as inverters are getting better, progress is slow.
For computers, technological improvements make the difference between Pong and Left 4 Dead. But as long as a solar panel produces a kilowatt of power, it doesn’t really matter how swanky it is. Arrays of the future will produce more power, but existing ones are not about to become an embarrassment. And it’s not as though technological progress will pass you by. Few arrays take up every last inch of roof space, largely because of the limitations of current inverters. You’ll be able to add more advanced panels with built-in inverters to fill in the gaps.
A more important issue is cost. Solar panels have gotten cheaper over the past couple of years, not because of technological breakthroughs but because of mundane factors such as increased manufacturing capacity in China. Installation, too, is coming down in price as contractors get the hang of it.
These trends hasten the day when solar will achieve parity with fossil fuels, but have less impact on a homeowner’s bottom line, because states are scaling back their subsidies at the same time. New Jersey, for example, is set to reduce its cash grant from $1.75 per watt to $1.55 per watt.
I think the best argument for holding off is that contractors, inspectors, and regulators are still climbing up the learning curve. Right now, you need a good deal of patience and fortitude to install solar panels. The way around this is a power-purchase agreement or leasing arrangement from a company such as SunRun or SolarCity, if they offer one if your area. In addition, large installers such as Acro Energy are working to speed up the installation process.
Another argument for delay is that conservation measures such as insulation or adjustments to your heating system might give you more buck for the buck. A fellow solar blogger, Osha Gray Davidson in Phoenix, Ariz., told me how he reached this conclusion:
We decided to take your advice and concentrate on negawatts (conservation) first. We’re getting bids to replace our aging roof with an energy-efficient one and coordinate it with installing solar panels. 1BOG just entered the Phoenix market and they’re preparing a bid for our house. We also cut back on air-conditioning this summer by installing an energy-efficient single-room ductless air conditioner by Fujitsu. Mounted on my home office wall and with the compressor outside, I keep my office comfortable and quiet during the day without cooling the entire (empty) house with central air. Our power usage was 11% less in July ’09 compared to July ’08 (July being the month with the highest power usage).
We’ve cut way back on driving as well, partly thanks to the coming of light rail to our city. We use it all the time and love it. And my wife bikes to work now that the day-time temperature has dropped below 100. We still don’t have solar panels on the roof, and I’m looking forward to that day. The larger work to reduce our carbon footprint is going well — and continues.
I highly recommend getting a home-energy audit and studying the auditor’s cost-benefit analysis of specific steps you could take. Some things that seem like good ideas, such as installing new windows, have surprisingly long payback periods, and solar panels are actually a better use of your money.
Solar panels on George’s roof, courtesy of his brother Bret Musser
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I have gone through energy audits on my house as well and insulation was the first thing to do, then a more efficient furnace. I want to put solar hot water on the roof, which could possibly half my gas bill but it turns out that a few dollars tuning up the vegetable garden will make more financial sense than the solar hot water, at least given the current state of my vegetable garden.
Food is a major household input and its price necessarily encompasses energy costs all down the line. Growing some ourselves saved quite a bit and was fun besides.
Link to thisCheap solar is always a few years away,seems like I have been hearing this for over 40 years now, enough already,its aways going to be over priced,and thats because oil company’s own all the patents.
Link to thisHere in California you can buy plug & play AC solar panels at a hardware store, and install them literally in a few hours. New technology called Andalay AC does the trick
Patience, fortitude and the complexities of a PPA or lease aren’t needed — and the payback for a DIY installation is less than 6 years. AS FAST OR FASTER THAN MANY OTHER ENERGY RETROFITS!
Link to thisOur installation was remarkably straightforward. I costed the option of buying the equipment and installing it myself but this would have given at best a marginal cost saving. We investigated several suppliers and got three quotations eventually selecting "Plug into the Sun" from Cornwall (UK). They arrived when they said they would and took a day and a half to get the installation in and commissioned. It could not have been easier. The economics here work out at between 8% and 10% return on capital, a lot better than the banks are likely to pay for sometime to come.
Link to thisMr. Cullen, please listen to yourself. "I costed…at best a marginal saving." Saving is saving in any language, in any country. Why didn’t you want to save? Statements such as those, thrown in the middle of a debate, only cloud any point you are trying to make. I applaud that you have gone solar. Have you installed more panels in your driveway yet? And, you have stated your financial burden in much better terms.
Link to thisAssuming you are not an idiot and can put a nut on a bolt, then you should consider buying, installing your own and save 50-75%!!
I’m amazed at how people will pay $10k when for 5-25 hrs of study, 5-20 hrs of work, you can save so much money. Those of you who can’t do their own deserve to get sce-ed.
Why do you need to put them on the roof? Why not in the back yard or build a shed, porch, etc, with them as the roof? Come on people, think a little!!
Panels with inverters can be bought for under $2.50/wt!!
sunelec.com.
Even better put up a windgen which are going for $1.5k/kw plus install and pole. marnewts4less.com
If scared of the wiring, just hire a solar person or electrician to wire it up for you. Isn’t 50-75% saving worth this?
Link to thisWindgens at magnets4lesscom
Jack, oil companies don’t own the patents and couldn’t care less about electric power as only a % or 2 is made by oil in the US.
Joesph, here in the US the panels are less than 50% of installed cost. You can save a lot by doing your own.
Michael, lighten up!!
1citizen, first you should insulate better. Do it well enough and you won’t need a furnace. I do with just a 750 wt heater!!
Link to this`A lot more research needs to be done about who owns what where solar and oil is concerned,if you look at who’s sitting on what boards you might be surprised,and most states and communities have strick codes about how,where,when ,and what is installed uncluding solar,if done wrong huge fines can occure,so it is a little more than nuts and bolts,and thats not with sun tracking systems added to the price.Don’t get me wrong I am not against solar,it just seems the deck has become stacked against it.
Link to thisEnergy audits show there are already great affordable solar solutions for homeowners and small businesses. The technology is good, and the prices are already very affordable through state and federal subsidies. If you’re interested in solar energy or any other alternative energies, check out http://www.greencollareconomy.com. It has hundreds of case studies on emerging green technology and solar power. It’s also the largest b2b green directory on the web.
Link to thisI think that solar energy will become the future of the most important forms of energy, and pollution-free, it is environmentally friendly. I now use solar water heaters, so I advocate everyone should work together to protect the environment.Provide a good site for everyone: http://www.china-solarwaterheaters.com/
Link to thisAfter spending a considerable amount of time investigating the process, I hired SolarCity.
I have no desire to hire contractors, electricians, file for tax credits and wait, obtain & file building permits, and after looking into the PGE interconnection process, I surrendered and did a FULL PRE PAY. Best thing I ever did.
SolarCity even took over my existing roof warrantee, covered my home under their insurance and most of all, gave me peace of mind. The crews were professional, swift & I’ve already referred my salesperson Daniel O. to a few of my neighbors.
Yes I could have saved a few thousand DIY. Yes I could have gotten cheaper panels. Yes I could have contracted out all the moving pieces. But when all is said & done, I didn’t want to DYI my Kitchen or Bathroom either. I wanted it done right & wanted it done well.
Link to this