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Don’t just blame the EPA – coal exports are down, too

It’s important to understand that not all of the bad news for the coal industry is coming by way of the EPA. While the CO2 limits for new coal and gas plants complicates domestic power generation, the global market for U.S.

This article was published in Scientific American’s former blog network and reflects the views of the author, not necessarily those of Scientific American


It’s important to understand that not all of the bad news for the coal industry is coming by way of the EPA. While the CO2 limits for new coal and gas plants complicates domestic power generation, the global market for U.S. coal is softening. Up until several months ago, many people (myself included) were expecting U.S. coal exports to increase based on strong international demand. I wrote last year that even though domestic coal production was declining, significant amounts of U.S. coal (and carbon) were being consumed by European and Asian markets.

However, instead of expecting a record year of coal exports, U.S. exports are expected to decline by 5 percent this year.

Perhaps the biggest indicator is China’s announcement that they will ban construction of coal-fired power plants in three key industrial regions around Beijing, Shanhai, and Guanghzou in an effort improve air quality. The action plan from the State Council, China's Cabinet, also aims to cut coal's share of the country's total primary energy use to below 65% in 2017 and increase the share of nuclear power, natural gas and renewable energy.


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It’s unclear what will happen in the short-term in the international coal markets, but this is definitely part of the equation.

There is also the LNG export wildcard. U.S. natural gas could shake up international markets even more depending on how the Obama Administration handles LNG export terminal permitting. It’s conceivable that increased U.S. LNG exports will further depress the international coal market and further weaken demand for U.S. coal.

David Wogan is an engineer and policy researcher who writes about energy, technology, and policy.

David's academic and professional background includes a unique blend of technology and policy in the field of energy systems. Most recently, David worked at Austin Energy, a Texas municipal utility, implementing a Department of Energy stimulus grant related to energy efficiency. Previously, David was a member of the Energy & Climate Change team at the White House Council on Environmental Quality for the Obama Administration.

David holds two Master's degrees from The University of Texas at Austin in Mechanical Engineering and Public Affairs. While at UT, David was a researcher in the Webber Energy Group, where his research focused on advanced biofuel production to offset petroleum use in the transportation sector. David holds a Bachelor's of Science degree in Mechanical Engineering from The University of Texas at Austin, where he researched nuclear non-proliferation measurement technology.

David is a 2013 Aspen Institute Journalism Scholar, joining a select group of journalists from Slate, ABC News, and The New York Times.

David lives in Austin, Texas. Follow along on Twitter or email him at david.wogan@me.com.

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